I'll bet most of you reading this article wish that you had bought Microsoft or Apple stock when they were fledgling companies. A lot of those that did, became very wealthy. The question now is -- what is today's fledgling company that will become the next Microsoft or Apple? Consider this -- when looking back at how Microsoft and Apple were formed they had one thing in common -- they were formed by visionaries (Bill Gates and Steve Jobs).
As you know, I believe that the next revolutionary company will play a major role in the hydrogen fuel revolution, and what I'm looking for is visionaries that can and will make it happen. If you want to become a multi millionaire, pick the right company and invest in it. In the following discussion I'll try to give you some guidance.
If you had bought TESLA stock last year at 17 dollars per share, it would now be worth about 270 dollars per share (almost a 16 fold increase). On the other hand if you had bought PLUG (a hydrogen fuel cell and hydrogen generation company) stock last year for 15 cents per share it would now be worth 5.20 dollars per share (almost a 35 fold increase).
Although the plug in electric cars, being built by TESLA, appear to be betting against the hydrogen fueled cars, it's too early to make this assumption. From my vantage point, the Tesla company must have a visionary leader. When compared to the Nissan Leaf plug in car, they've managed to extend the vehicle's range from about 70 miles to about 265 miles, and reduced the fast recharging time from about two hours to about 25 minutes for an over the road half charge. However, the Tesla car is still quite expensive -- $986 per month lease price for the least expensive Model S. Oh -- I almost forgot, since the lithium ion battery is very expensive and might only last half of the car's life, the purchase price includes a 125 thousand mile battery guarantee.
OK -- so why am I saying that it's too early to assume that Tesla Motors is betting against hydrogen. Well logic would say that when hydrogen fuel cell prices come down as a result of mass production -- which they will -- they can be used in the Tesla car as a range extender and for over the road fast (2-3 minute) refueling. Moreover, with mass production, the lithium ion battery will also be significantly reduced in price. My guess is that Tesla will end up using the longer life nickel metal hydride batteries in conjunction with hydrogen fuel cells.
In line with what I'm saying about visionaries, the leader in charge of PLUG has made lemonade out of what appears to be lemons. He has made the currently very expensive hydrogen fuel cell into an economic reality. With companies like Wal-Mart and Fed Ex converting their power lift trucks from lead acid batteries, the hydrogen fuel cell has found a home. With tens of thousands of battery conversions currently underway, the mass production volume is also underway.
Although I've already mentioned the Honda FXC in previous articles, the leader in this effort will probably be Toyota. In 2015, Toyota will introduce their version at a sales price of less than $70,000 -- comparable to the Tesla cars. To bring costs down, Toyota has improved the efficiency and cost of their fuel cells, and because fuels cells are most efficient when operating at a constant output, they can charge batteries when power demand is reduced. Much of Toyota's technology will build upon their very successful Prius hybrid -- which uses low cost and long life nickel metal hydride batteries. With the Prius currently selling for about $25,000, and getting about 40 miles per gallon of premium gasoline fuel, their hydrogen fuel cell car will get 60 miles -- or more -- per equivalent gasoline gallon of hydrogen. Since the Prius's internal combustion engine will be replaced by fuel cells, it's just a matter of time before their car's selling price matches the Prius. Here again it's mass production of the fuel cell and the high pressure hydrogen fuel tank that will make it happen.
My thinking is that Toyota's and Honda's FCl cars will quickly gain prominence in Japan, because Japan is totally dependent upon imported oil. With government support, FC volumes will most likely increase significantly. In fact, I believe that Japan will accelerate the hydrogen FC vehicle revolution. In fact it appears that Toyota is providing a significant amount of funding for a Japanese hydrogen highway. Although Japan will still need to import liquefied natural gas, the ultimate plan will be to make hydrogen from water using the sulfur/iodine thermo-chemical process and a fusion nuclear and/or parabolic solar heat source.
One other thing that you should know before you begin investing --- and hopefully making a lot of money. The all electric plug in car is not as efficient as some people claim. Generally speaking -- batteries are 90 percent efficient, fuel cells are 60 percent efficient, and the internal combustion engines are about 30 percent efficient. When batteries are charged by electricity from a natural gas fueled power plant, the power plant efficiency is at best 50 percent. Therefore, the 90 percent efficient battery is really only about 40 to 45 percent efficient when it's fuel source is natural gas. Conversely, the natural gas to hydrogen to fuel cell efficiency is significantly better.
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